Q1 Econ Report: Spring Market Shows Growing Inventory Amid Stable Prices
Posted on 04/28/2026
The first quarter of 2026 for the Madison County residential real estate market was characterized by modest growth in sales and pricing, suggesting a continued normalization and a move toward more balanced market conditions.
Market Performance Highlights
Home Sales: A total of 1,584 homes were sold in Q1 2026, a 1.8% increase compared to Q1 2025.
Pricing Trends: The median sales price reached $332,884, a 2.5% year-over-year increase and the highest first-quarter level on record for the region.
Inventory & Supply: While the 2,394 homes available for sale in March 2026 marked a high for the year, overall inventory was down 5.5% compared to March 2025. The market currently holds a 4.4-month supply, moving closer to a balanced state.
Days on Market (DOM): Homes averaged 64 days on the market, which is unchanged from Q1 2025 but represents a 21% increase from the previous quarter (Q4 2025).
Segment-Specific Insights
New Construction vs. Existing Homes: New construction continues to be a major market driver, accounting for 36% (569 units) of all Q1 sales.
Price Range Shifts: The most significant growth occurred in the $500K–$650K price range, where sales rose by approximately 26%. Conversely, the largest decline was seen in the $200K–$250K range, with sales falling by roughly 21%.
Sales vs. List Price: Only 13% of homes sold above their list price, while 48% closed below the initial asking price.
Broader Economic Context
Mortgage Rates & Inflation: The national average for a 30-year fixed mortgage was approximately 6.2% in March 2026. Regional price growth (2.5%) remained largely in line with the quarterly inflation rate of 2.7%.
Outlook: Based on current trends, sales are projected to potentially rise to around 2,000 units in Q2 2026, with ending inventory expected to reach approximately 2,500 listed homes.